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Segunda División

Atenas vs Oriental

Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 75.3%
why
• league OK (63.2%, n=19)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
league track
ok · 63.2% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.0%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 27/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.6% (n=583)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (75.3%)
@ 10 Nov 23:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
47.2%
Draw
28.1%
Away win
24.7%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:53
scoring fit λ 1.61 / μ 1.11
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 214 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
24.7%
4.05x 36.4% n=214 risky
Draw
28.1%
3.56x 36.4% n=214 risky
top Home win
47.2%
2.12x 36.4% n=214 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Atenas 2W / 1D / 1L · momentum Atenas 1.33 ppg vs Oriental 1.0 ppg
Atenas · last 6
01 Nov · Segunda División 1-0 L
25 Oct · Segunda División 4-0 W
18 Oct · Segunda División 3-0 L
11 Oct · Segunda División 1-1 D
04 Oct · Segunda División 0-1 W
27 Sep · Segunda División 0-0 D
Oriental · last 6
01 Nov · Segunda División 1-1 D
25 Oct · Segunda División 3-2 L
19 Oct · Segunda División 1-1 D
10 Oct · Segunda División 3-1 L
04 Oct · Segunda División 0-0 D
27 Sep · Segunda División 3-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Aug 26 · Segunda División Oriental 0-1 Atenas
21 Aug 25 · Segunda División Atenas 1-2 Oriental
31 May 25 · Segunda División Oriental 1-1 Atenas
10 Nov 24 · Segunda División Atenas 3-1 Oriental