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Segunda División
Cerrito vs Colón
Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 18 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.7%
why
• league OK (63.2%, n=19)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.2% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.0%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 28/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.7%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.1%
Draw
28.4%
Away win
29.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:53
scoring fit λ 1.46 / μ 1.19
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 214 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.5%
|
3.39x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Draw |
28.4%
|
3.52x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| top Home win |
42.1%
|
2.37x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Cerrito 0W / 0D / 3L
· momentum Cerrito 1.5 ppg vs Colón 1.67 ppg
Cerrito · last 6
31 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
25 Oct · Segunda División
2-2
D
18 Oct · Segunda División
1-0
L
10 Oct · Segunda División
2-1
W
07 Oct · Copa Uruguay
2-2
D
04 Oct · Segunda División
1-3
W
Colón · last 6
01 Nov · Segunda División
1-0
W
27 Oct · Segunda División
3-2
L
17 Oct · Segunda División
3-0
W
10 Oct · Segunda División
1-3
W
04 Oct · Segunda División
0-0
D
26 Sep · Segunda División
3-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Aug 26 · Segunda División
Colón 1-0 Cerrito
26 Oct 25 · Segunda División
Colón 1-0 Cerrito
02 Aug 25 · Segunda División
Cerrito 1-2 Colón