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Segunda División
Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas Montevideo
Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 19 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 68.9%
book 1.46x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league OK (63.2%, n=19)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
• priced 1.46x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• confidence 69% below the 85% proven band
league track
ok · 63.2% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.0%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 28/28 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.3% (n=150)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
68.9%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
lean (68.9%)
@ 10 Nov 23:53 · 1.46x
board also had Under 3.5 goals 75.8%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.9%
Draw
31.0%
Away win
31.1%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:53
scoring fit λ 1.31 / μ 1.16
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 214 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.1%
|
3.22x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Draw |
31.0%
|
3.23x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| top Home win |
37.9%
|
2.64x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Plaza Colonia 7W / 2D / 3L
· momentum Plaza Colon… 1.0 ppg vs Rentistas M… 1.67 ppg
Plaza Colonia · last 6
01 Nov · Segunda División
1-1
D
24 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
18 Oct · Segunda División
2-1
W
11 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
08 Oct · Copa Uruguay
0-1
L
04 Oct · Segunda División
1-3
L
Rentistas Montevideo · last 6
31 Oct · Segunda División
2-0
W
25 Oct · Segunda División
2-2
D
18 Oct · Segunda División
3-0
W
16 Oct · Copa Uruguay
3-0
L
11 Oct · Segunda División
2-1
L
03 Oct · Segunda División
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
16 Sep 26 · Copa Uruguay
Rentistas Monte… 2-1 Plaza Colonia
10 Aug 26 · Segunda División
Rentistas Monte… 1-1 Plaza Colonia
14 Mar 26 · Segunda División
Rentistas Monte… 0-0 Plaza Colonia
15 Sep 24 · Segunda División
Plaza Colonia 2-1 Rentistas Monte…
01 Jun 24 · Segunda División
Rentistas Monte… 0-1 Plaza Colonia