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Copa Colombia
La Equidad FC vs America de Cali
Today 01:30 19 hours, 4 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.5%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 22/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
28.3%
Draw
33.9%
Away win
37.8%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:08
scoring fit λ 1.37 / μ 1.58
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 07 Nov · 152 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
37.8%
|
2.64x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
| Draw |
33.9%
|
2.95x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
| Home win |
28.3%
|
3.53x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — La Equidad FC 2W / 5D / 4L
· momentum La Equidad … 1.67 ppg vs America de … 2.0 ppg
La Equidad FC · last 6
08 Nov · Primera A
2-1
L
29 Oct · Primera A
3-1
W
24 Oct · Primera A
1-0
L
21 Oct · Primera A
2-1
W
16 Oct · Copa Colombia
4-1
W
11 Oct · Primera A
2-2
D
America de Cali · last 6
08 Nov · Primera A
0-0
D
04 Nov · Primera A
0-0
D
30 Oct · Primera A
2-1
W
25 Oct · Primera A
3-1
W
21 Oct · Copa Colombia
0-4
W
18 Oct · Primera A
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
26 Jul 26 · Primera A
La Equidad FC 0-2 America de Cali
18 Jan 26 · Primera A
America de Cali 3-0 La Equidad FC
12 Oct 25 · Primera A
America de Cali 3-2 La Equidad FC
20 Apr 25 · Primera A
La Equidad FC 2-0 America de Cali
21 Oct 24 · Primera A
La Equidad FC 2-2 America de Cali