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Copa Uruguay
Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud
Tomorrow 02:00 15 hours, 54 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 92.3%
why
• league PROVEN (88.9%, n=9)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 88.9% of 9 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.5%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 25/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.0%
Draw
26.2%
Away win
7.7%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 1.81 / μ 0.53
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
7.7%
|
12.95x | – | risky |
| Draw |
26.2%
|
3.81x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
66.0%
|
1.51x | – | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Liverpool Mon… 1W / 1D / 2L
· momentum Liverpool M… 2.67 ppg vs Juventud 1.67 ppg
Liverpool Montevideo · last 6
05 Nov · Copa Uruguay
0-2
W
02 Nov · Primera División - Ap…
2-0
W
25 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
0-1
W
21 Oct · Copa Uruguay
1-0
W
18 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
1-0
W
10 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
1-1
D
Juventud · last 6
02 Nov · Primera División - Ap…
2-0
L
28 Oct · Copa Uruguay
0-2
W
24 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
0-0
D
17 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
2-0
L
11 Oct · Primera División - Ap…
2-0
W
08 Oct · Copa Uruguay
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
02 Nov 26 · Primera División - Ap…
Liverpool Monte… 2-0 Juventud
25 Apr 26 · Primera División - Ap…
Juventud 1-1 Liverpool Monte…
01 Nov 25 · Primera División - Cl…
Liverpool Monte… 0-1 Juventud
04 May 25 · Primera División - Ap…
Juventud 1-0 Liverpool Monte…