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Friendlies
Sint Maarten vs Anguilla
Tomorrow 02:30 16 hours, 25 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.4%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
47.5%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
29.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:55
scoring fit λ 1.75 / μ 1.32
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.2%
|
3.43x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
23.4%
|
4.28x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
47.5%
|
2.11x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Sint Maarten 0.2 ppg vs Anguilla 0.5 ppg
Sint Maarten · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
4-0
L
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
2-4
L
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
1-0
L
27 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
0-1
L
31 Mar · CONCACAF Series
0-0
D
Anguilla · last 6
05 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
3-2
L
30 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
0-2
L
27 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag…
5-0
L
21 Sep · Friendlies
1-0
L
30 Mar · CONCACAF Series
4-0
L
27 Mar · CONCACAF Series
1-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.