HOME
Copa Colombia
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional
Tomorrow 03:30 20 hours, 30 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=2)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 2 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 9.5%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 22/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.8%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
22.8%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:08
scoring fit λ 1.60 / μ 1.08
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 07 Nov · 152 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
22.8%
|
4.39x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
| Draw |
30.4%
|
3.29x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.8%
|
2.14x | 52.0% n=152 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Once Caldas 2W / 3D / 6L
· momentum Once Caldas 2.33 ppg vs Atlético Na… 2.17 ppg
Once Caldas · last 6
07 Nov · Primera A
1-0
W
29 Oct · Primera A
1-0
W
25 Oct · Primera A
1-1
D
18 Oct · Primera A
0-2
W
14 Oct · Primera A
1-1
D
10 Oct · Primera A
1-0
W
Atlético Nacional · last 6
08 Nov · Primera A
4-3
W
03 Nov · Primera A
1-1
D
30 Oct · Primera A
2-0
W
26 Oct · Primera A
2-1
W
23 Oct · Primera A
3-0
W
21 Oct · Primera A
1-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
02 May 26 · Primera A
Once Caldas 1-0 Atlético Nacion…
23 Oct 25 · Copa Colombia
Atlético Nacion… 2-0 Once Caldas
10 Oct 25 · Copa Colombia
Once Caldas 0-1 Atlético Nacion…
12 Jul 25 · Primera A
Once Caldas 1-3 Atlético Nacion…
20 Jun 25 · Primera A
Once Caldas 1-2 Atlético Nacion…