Estonia U19 vs Liechtenstein U19

Tomorrow 12:00 23 hours, 30 minutes

AWAY

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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK

RISK

Under 5.5 goals · 90.6%

why

• type ledger 91% (n=47)

• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)

league track

new league — not enough graded picks to rate

draws 33.3% of matches

team history 2/0 games (180d) · low data

bet type · time of day

OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)

measured band: 96.7% (n=30)

afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)

What we suggest

All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.

Strongest leg · risky

90.6%

Under 5.5 goals

top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.

HIGH risk

Value

No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.

PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade

1X2 — engine vs market

Home win

50.9%

Draw

22.9%

Away win

26.3%

calibrated 10 Nov 09:55

scoring fit λ 1.83 / μ 1.26

Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID

backtested 28 Oct · 96 matches of this league

fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.

1X2

pick	chance	fair	backtest	verdict
Away win	26.3%	3.81x	42.7% n=96	risky
Draw	22.9%	4.37x	42.7% n=96	risky
top Home win	50.9%	1.97x	42.7% n=96	risky

Form & head-to-head

no H2H record

Estonia U19 · last 6

08 Jun · Friendlies 3-2 L

06 Jun · Friendlies 3-1 W

31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-4 L

28 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 2-1 L

25 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship… 2-0 L

18 Nov · UEFA U19 Championship… 0-2 L

Liechtenstein U19 · last 6

No settled matches on record.

Head-to-head last 5

First meeting on record.