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J-League Cup
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol
Today 12:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 90.0%
why
• league NEW (75.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 75.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 30.1%)
draws 8.3% of matches
team history 24/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.1% (n=1726)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.8%
Draw
13.7%
Away win
11.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 10:03
scoring fit λ 2.39 / μ 0.77
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.4%
|
8.75x | – | risky |
| Draw |
13.7%
|
7.28x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
74.8%
|
1.34x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Kawasaki Fron… 4W / 6D / 3L
· momentum Kawasaki Fr… 2.0 ppg vs Kashiwa Rey… 2.0 ppg
Kawasaki Frontale · last 6
07 Nov · J1 League
2-1
L
01 Nov · J1 League
1-0
L
28 Oct · J-League Cup
0-2
W
25 Oct · J1 League
2-1
W
21 Oct · J1 League
2-1
W
17 Oct · J1 League
2-4
W
Kashiwa Reysol · last 6
07 Nov · J1 League
2-1
W
03 Nov · AFC Champions League
2-0
W
31 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
27 Oct · AFC Champions League
0-0
D
24 Oct · J1 League
2-3
W
21 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Kawasaki Fronta…
10 May 26 · J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Kawasaki Fronta…
08 Feb 26 · J1 League
Kawasaki Fronta… 5-3 Kashiwa Reysol
12 Oct 25 · J-League Cup
Kashiwa Reysol 4-1 Kawasaki Fronta…
08 Oct 25 · J-League Cup
Kawasaki Fronta… 3-1 Kashiwa Reysol