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J-League Cup
Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia
Tomorrow 12:00 23 hours, 31 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 15.0%)
draws 8.3% of matches
team history 23/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
19.4%
Draw
20.4%
Away win
60.2%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 0.80 / μ 1.68
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
60.2%
|
1.66x | – | lean |
| Draw |
20.4%
|
4.9x | – | risky |
| Home win |
19.4%
|
5.16x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Vissel Kobe 1W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Vissel Kobe 1.83 ppg vs Machida Zel… 2.0 ppg
Vissel Kobe · last 6
08 Nov · J1 League
2-2
D
03 Nov · AFC Champions League
3-2
W
31 Oct · J1 League
2-1
W
27 Oct · AFC Champions League
0-1
W
24 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
21 Oct · J1 League
2-1
L
Machida Zelvia · last 6
08 Nov · J1 League
0-0
D
05 Nov · AFC Cup
2-1
W
01 Nov · J1 League
0-0
D
29 Oct · AFC Cup
0-1
W
24 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
21 Oct · J1 League
0-5
W
Head-to-head last 5
24 Oct 26 · J1 League
Vissel Kobe 0-0 Machida Zelvia
10 Aug 25 · J1 League
Machida Zelvia 2-0 Vissel Kobe
20 Apr 25 · J1 League
Vissel Kobe 1-0 Machida Zelvia