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J-League Cup
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima
Tomorrow 12:00 23 hours, 30 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.9%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 15.0%)
draws 8.3% of matches
team history 23/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
32.7%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 1.64 / μ 1.33
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
32.7%
|
3.06x | – | risky |
| Draw |
20.8%
|
4.81x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Yokohama F. M… 6W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Yokohama F.… 1.67 ppg vs Kashima 1.5 ppg
Yokohama F. Marinos · last 6
07 Nov · J1 League
1-1
D
01 Nov · J1 League
1-0
W
28 Oct · J-League Cup
4-3
W
25 Oct · J1 League
1-1
D
21 Oct · J1 League
2-2
D
17 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
Kashima · last 6
07 Nov · J1 League
0-0
D
04 Nov · AFC Champions League
0-0
D
31 Oct · J1 League
3-1
W
28 Oct · AFC Champions League
3-0
W
24 Oct · J1 League
2-3
L
21 Oct · J1 League
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Aug 26 · J1 League
Yokohama F. Mar… 3-4 Kashima
10 May 26 · J1 League
Yokohama F. Mar… 1-1 Kashima
14 Feb 26 · J1 League
Kashima 1-0 Yokohama F. Mar…
06 Dec 25 · J1 League
Kashima 2-1 Yokohama F. Mar…
25 May 25 · J1 League
Yokohama F. Mar… 3-1 Kashima