HOME
J-League Cup
Urawa vs Cerezo Osaka
Tomorrow 12:30 1 day
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league NEW (50.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 50.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 15.0%)
draws 8.3% of matches
team history 24/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
70.8%
Draw
15.1%
Away win
14.1%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 2.46 / μ 0.98
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.1%
|
7.11x | – | risky |
| Draw |
15.1%
|
6.61x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
70.8%
|
1.41x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Urawa 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Urawa 2.33 ppg vs Cerezo Osaka 1.33 ppg
Urawa · last 6
08 Nov · J1 League
2-2
D
31 Oct · J1 League
0-0
D
28 Oct · J-League Cup
1-2
W
25 Oct · J1 League
1-0
W
21 Oct · J1 League
3-2
W
17 Oct · J1 League
0-1
W
Cerezo Osaka · last 6
08 Nov · J1 League
0-1
W
31 Oct · J1 League
3-1
L
28 Oct · J-League Cup
1-3
W
25 Oct · J1 League
2-2
D
21 Oct · J1 League
1-1
D
17 Oct · J1 League
2-4
L
Head-to-head last 5
28 May 25 · J1 League
Urawa 0-0 Cerezo Osaka