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Belarus Cup
Orsha vs Bate Borisov
Today 13:30 19 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 10.0% of matches
team history 27/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
6.5%
Draw
14.7%
Away win
78.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 10:05
scoring fit λ 0.49 / μ 2.31
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
78.8%
|
1.27x | – | solid |
| Draw |
14.7%
|
6.81x | – | risky |
| Home win |
6.5%
|
15.44x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Orsha 1.67 ppg vs Bate Borisov 1.0 ppg
Orsha · last 6
07 Nov · Pershaya Liga
1-2
W
31 Oct · Pershaya Liga
3-2
W
24 Oct · Pershaya Liga
1-5
W
17 Oct · Pershaya Liga
2-3
L
11 Oct · Pershaya Liga
1-0
L
03 Oct · Pershaya Liga
0-0
D
Bate Borisov · last 6
07 Nov · Premier League
1-0
W
31 Oct · Premier League
1-0
L
24 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
17 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
14 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
10 Oct · Premier League
2-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.