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UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification
Germany U19 vs Sweden U19
Tomorrow 15:00 1 day, 8 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 7/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
48.1%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
31.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:10
scoring fit λ 2.02 / μ 1.60
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 96 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.3%
|
3.19x | 42.7% n=96 | risky |
| Draw |
20.6%
|
4.85x | 42.7% n=96 | risky |
| top Home win |
48.1%
|
2.08x | 42.7% n=96 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Germany U19 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Germany U19 1.67 ppg vs Sweden U19 1.83 ppg
Germany U19 · last 6
03 Oct · Friendlies
1-1
D
30 Sep · Friendlies
1-2
W
11 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship
2-0
L
08 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship
1-2
W
04 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship
4-0
L
01 Jul · UEFA U19 Championship
0-4
W
Sweden U19 · last 6
30 Sep · Friendlies
2-1
W
08 Jun · Friendlies
3-1
W
31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship…
2-2
D
31 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship…
1-3
W
28 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship…
3-3
D
28 Mar · UEFA U19 Championship…
3-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
25 Mar 26 · UEFA U19 Championship…
Germany U19 2-2 Sweden U19