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Segunda División
La Luz vs Fenix
Today 21:30 7 hours, 34 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league OK (68.4%, n=19)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 68.4% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 46.0%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 24/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.5%
Draw
30.7%
Away win
34.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 10:00
scoring fit λ 1.27 / μ 1.28
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 214 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
34.8%
|
2.87x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Draw |
30.7%
|
3.26x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Home win |
34.5%
|
2.9x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — La Luz 1W / 3D / 2L
· momentum La Luz 2.17 ppg vs Fenix 0.83 ppg
La Luz · last 6
31 Oct · Segunda División
2-0
L
26 Oct · Segunda División
3-0
W
17 Oct · Segunda División
0-1
W
11 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
05 Oct · Segunda División
3-2
W
27 Sep · Segunda División
1-2
W
Fenix · last 6
31 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
25 Oct · Segunda División
4-0
L
17 Oct · Segunda División
0-1
L
12 Oct · Segunda División
0-0
D
04 Oct · Segunda División
2-0
W
27 Sep · Segunda División
3-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Aug 26 · Segunda División
Fenix 0-0 La Luz
22 Mar 26 · Segunda División
Fenix 0-0 La Luz
27 Sep 25 · Segunda División
Fenix 0-2 La Luz
06 Jul 25 · Segunda División
La Luz 2-2 Fenix
20 Apr 25 · Segunda División
La Luz 0-2 Fenix