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Segunda División
Tacuarembó vs Miramar
Tomorrow 21:30 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 91.2%
why
• league OK (63.2%, n=19)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.2% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 41.0%)
draws 33.3% of matches
team history 24/24 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.1% (n=1139)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.2%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.7%
Draw
28.9%
Away win
39.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:06
scoring fit λ 1.09 / μ 1.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 214 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
39.5%
|
2.53x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Draw |
28.9%
|
3.46x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
| Home win |
31.7%
|
3.16x | 36.4% n=214 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Tacuarembó 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Tacuarembó 0.5 ppg vs Miramar 1.33 ppg
Tacuarembó · last 6
31 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
24 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
17 Oct · Segunda División
0-1
L
10 Oct · Segunda División
2-1
L
04 Oct · Segunda División
0-1
L
29 Sep · Segunda División
2-2
D
Miramar · last 6
01 Nov · Segunda División
1-1
D
26 Oct · Segunda División
3-0
L
18 Oct · Segunda División
1-0
W
11 Oct · Segunda División
1-1
D
03 Oct · Segunda División
1-0
W
28 Sep · Segunda División
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Aug 26 · Segunda División
Miramar 1-1 Tacuarembó