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Primera B

Popayan vs Ind. Yumbo

Tomorrow 23:00 1 day, 12 hours
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AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 89.2%
why
• league PROVEN (82.9%, n=35)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.9% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 41.7% of matches
team history 20/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.8% (n=1510)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.2%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.1%
Draw
32.4%
Away win
29.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:53
scoring fit λ 1.35 / μ 1.17
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 293 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
29.5%
3.39x 43.0% n=293 risky
Draw
32.4%
3.09x 43.0% n=293 risky
top Home win
38.2%
2.62x 43.0% n=293 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Popayan 1W / 1D / 1L · momentum Popayan 1.67 ppg vs Ind. Yumbo 0.83 ppg
Popayan · last 6
06 Nov · Primera B 1-0 W
02 Nov · Primera B 2-4 W
29 Oct · Primera B 1-1 D
24 Oct · Primera B 2-1 W
20 Oct · Primera B 3-0 L
17 Oct · Primera B 0-1 L
Ind. Yumbo · last 6
09 Nov · Primera B 0-0 D
06 Nov · Primera B 1-1 D
02 Nov · Primera B 2-4 L
29 Oct · Primera B 2-0 L
24 Oct · Primera B 1-0 L
20 Oct · Primera B 3-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
02 Nov 26 · Primera B Ind. Yumbo 2-4 Popayan
20 Oct 26 · Primera B Ind. Yumbo 3-0 Popayan
07 Apr 26 · Primera B Popayan 0-0 Ind. Yumbo