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Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG
Today 02:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 75.5%
why
• league PROVEN (82.4%, n=34)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
league track
proven · 82.4% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.6% (n=583)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.4% hit (n=475)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (75.5%)
@ 11 Nov 03:03
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
49.5%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
24.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:03
scoring fit λ 1.78 / μ 1.21
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 259 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
24.5%
|
4.08x | 47.5% n=259 | risky |
| Draw |
26.0%
|
3.85x | 47.5% n=259 | risky |
| top Home win |
49.5%
|
2.02x | 47.5% n=259 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Monarcas 4W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Monarcas 1.67 ppg vs Leones Negr… 1.67 ppg
Monarcas · last 6
08 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
2-1
W
05 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
1-2
W
01 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
3-1
L
25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-2
W
18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-2
L
10 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-1
D
Leones Negros UDG · last 6
08 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
2-1
W
06 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
1-0
L
01 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
3-1
W
25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
0-2
W
18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-2
L
11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
20 Sep 26 · Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros U…
05 Apr 26 · Liga de Expansión MX
Leones Negros U… 2-0 Monarcas
27 Oct 25 · Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas 2-3 Leones Negros U…
11 May 25 · Liga de Expansión MX
Leones Negros U… 2-0 Monarcas
04 May 25 · Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros U…