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Liga de Expansión MX
Piratas vs CA La Paz
Today 23:00 19 hours, 13 minutesCA
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 81.9%
why
• league PROVEN (82.4%, n=34)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
league track
proven · 82.4% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 17/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.5% (n=427)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (81.9%)
@ 11 Nov 03:03
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.4%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
18.1%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:03
scoring fit λ 2.00 / μ 1.04
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 259 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
18.1%
|
5.52x | 47.5% n=259 | risky |
| Draw |
23.5%
|
4.25x | 47.5% n=259 | risky |
| top Home win |
58.4%
|
1.71x | 47.5% n=259 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Piratas 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Piratas 1.5 ppg vs CA La Paz 2.33 ppg
Piratas · last 6
09 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
1-1
D
06 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
1-1
D
01 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
1-1
D
25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
0-5
W
18 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
3-0
W
11 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
4-2
L
CA La Paz · last 6
08 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
3-3
D
05 Nov · Liga de Expansión MX
0-1
W
31 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
3-0
W
25 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
1-3
W
17 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
2-2
D
10 Oct · Liga de Expansión MX
2-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
15 Aug 26 · Liga de Expansión MX
CA La Paz 2-0 Piratas