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Friendlies Women
Gabon Women vs Chad Women
Today 12:00 8 hours, 36 minutesCh
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 91.5%
why
• league WATCH (53.2%, n=79)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 53.2% of 79 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 42.3%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 0/0 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.6%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
31.4%
calibrated 10 Nov 02:55
scoring fit λ 1.65 / μ 1.35
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 457 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
31.4%
|
3.18x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
| Draw |
24.0%
|
4.17x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
| top Home win |
44.6%
|
2.24x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
Gabon Women · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Chad Women · last 6
No settled matches on record.
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.