Co
HOME
Friendlies Women
Congo Women vs Central Africa Women
Today 14:00 10 hours, 52 minutesCe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• league WATCH (53.2%, n=79)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 53.2% of 79 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 42.3%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 2/2 games (180d) · low data
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
29.4%
calibrated 10 Nov 02:55
scoring fit λ 1.68 / μ 1.29
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 457 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.4%
|
3.4x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
| Draw |
24.0%
|
4.17x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | 43.3% n=457 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Congo Women 1.0 ppg vs Central Afr… 0.0 ppg
Congo Women · last 6
13 Oct · Olympics Women - Qual…
0-0
D
09 Oct · Olympics Women - Qual…
0-0
D
Central Africa Women · last 6
13 Oct · Olympics Women - Qual…
7-0
L
09 Oct · Olympics Women - Qual…
0-8
L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.