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Friendlies
Vietnam U23 vs Thailand U23
Today 14:00 10 hours, 29 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.3%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=1)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 1 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 3/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
45.6%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
30.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 02:57
scoring fit λ 1.64 / μ 1.29
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 661 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.3%
|
3.3x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| Draw |
24.1%
|
4.15x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
| top Home win |
45.6%
|
2.19x | 44.3% n=661 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Vietnam U23 3W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Vietnam U23 0.67 ppg vs Thailand U23 0.5 ppg
Vietnam U23 · last 6
25 Sep · Asian Games
4-0
L
22 Sep · Asian Games
0-2
L
18 Sep · Asian Games
0-2
W
31 Mar · Friendlies
1-0
L
28 Mar · Friendlies
1-0
L
25 Mar · Friendlies
1-1
D
Thailand U23 · last 6
26 Sep · Asian Games
3-0
L
23 Sep · Asian Games
3-0
L
16 Sep · Asian Games
3-2
W
09 Jun · Friendlies
2-5
L
06 Jun · Friendlies
2-3
L
31 Mar · Friendlies
3-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
28 Mar 26 · Friendlies
Thailand U23 1-0 Vietnam U23
02 Jun 22 · AFC U23 Asian Cup
Thailand U23 2-2 Vietnam U23
22 May 22 · Southeast Asian Games
Vietnam U23 1-0 Thailand U23
26 Feb 22 · AFF U23 Championship
Thailand U23 0-1 Vietnam U23
22 Feb 22 · AFF U23 Championship
Vietnam U23 1-0 Thailand U23