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Liga E Pare
Ferizaj vs Suhareka
Today 12:00 8 hours, 36 minutesSu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 91.6%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 40.9%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 18/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.6%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.7%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
13.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 2.15 / μ 0.91
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 287 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.6%
|
7.34x | 55.1% n=287 | risky |
| Draw |
21.7%
|
4.62x | 55.1% n=287 | risky |
| top Home win |
64.7%
|
1.54x | 55.1% n=287 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Ferizaj 2.33 ppg vs Suhareka 1.17 ppg
Ferizaj · last 6
03 Nov · Liga E Pare
0-0
D
31 Oct · Liga E Pare
1-0
W
25 Oct · Liga E Pare
1-1
D
21 Oct · Liga E Pare
2-0
W
17 Oct · Liga E Pare
1-4
W
11 Oct · Liga E Pare
1-0
W
Suhareka · last 6
04 Nov · Liga E Pare
0-2
L
31 Oct · Liga E Pare
3-1
L
25 Oct · Liga E Pare
3-1
W
21 Oct · Liga E Pare
1-4
L
18 Oct · Liga E Pare
0-3
W
10 Oct · Liga E Pare
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match