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Paulista - U20
Santos U20 vs Palmeiras U20
Tomorrow 20:00 1 dayPa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 84.5%
book 1.26x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (81.0%, n=21)
• type ledger 79% (n=2007)
• short price 1.26x
league track
proven · 81.0% of 21 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.0%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 34/38 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.1% hit (n=2007, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.3% (n=433)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2564)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (84.5%)
@ 12 Nov 17:04 · 1.26x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.5%
Draw
24.9%
Away win
15.6%
calibrated 12 Nov 17:04
scoring fit λ 2.13 / μ 1.06
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 355 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
15.5%
|
6.43x | 56.6% n=355 | risky |
| Draw |
24.9%
|
4.01x | 56.6% n=355 | risky |
| top Home win |
59.5%
|
1.68x | 56.6% n=355 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Santos U20 1W / 5D / 5L
· momentum Santos U20 2.67 ppg vs Palmeiras U… 2.5 ppg
Santos U20 · last 6
09 Nov · Paulista - U20
1-2
W
30 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-1
W
24 Oct · Paulista - U20
1-4
W
18 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-1
W
12 Oct · Paulista - U20
1-2
W
10 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-3
D
Palmeiras U20 · last 6
09 Nov · Paulista - U20
1-2
L
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
1-3
W
01 Nov · Paulista - U20
2-0
W
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-0
W
26 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-3
W
22 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
2-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Paulista - U20
Palmeiras U20 1-2 Santos U20
10 Oct 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
Palmeiras U20 3-3 Santos U20
12 Jun 26 · CBF Brasileiro U20
Palmeiras U20 2-2 Santos U20
24 Oct 25 · Paulista - U20
Palmeiras U20 2-2 Santos U20
17 Oct 25 · Paulista - U20
Santos U20 2-2 Palmeiras U20
Tickets including this match