Pa
HOME
Paulista - U20
Palmeiras U20 vs Santos U20
Today 18:00 14 hours, 36 minutesSa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 80.7%
book 1.31x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (85.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 80% (n=1977)
• priced 1.31x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 85.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 38/34 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1977, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2515)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
80.7%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (80.7%)
@ 09 Nov 02:52 · 1.31x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
55.1%
Draw
25.6%
Away win
19.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 2.03 / μ 1.17
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 355 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
19.3%
|
5.18x | 56.6% n=355 | risky |
| Draw |
25.6%
|
3.91x | 56.6% n=355 | risky |
| top Home win |
55.1%
|
1.81x | 56.6% n=355 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Palmeiras U20 5W / 5D / 0L
· momentum Palmeiras U… 3.0 ppg vs Santos U20 2.67 ppg
Palmeiras U20 · last 6
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
1-3
W
01 Nov · Paulista - U20
2-0
W
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-0
W
26 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-3
W
22 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
2-4
W
18 Oct · Paulista - U20
3-0
W
Santos U20 · last 6
30 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-1
W
24 Oct · Paulista - U20
1-4
W
18 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-1
W
12 Oct · Paulista - U20
1-2
W
10 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-3
D
25 Sep · Paulista - U20
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
10 Oct 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
Palmeiras U20 3-3 Santos U20
12 Jun 26 · CBF Brasileiro U20
Palmeiras U20 2-2 Santos U20
24 Oct 25 · Paulista - U20
Palmeiras U20 2-2 Santos U20
17 Oct 25 · Paulista - U20
Santos U20 2-2 Palmeiras U20
03 Apr 25 · CBF Brasileiro U20
Santos U20 2-2 Palmeiras U20