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Premier League
Chapelton vs Racing United
Today 22:05 17 hours, 23 minutesRa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.6%
why
• league OK (57.9%, n=19)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 57.9% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.3%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 8/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.6%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.1%
Draw
29.4%
Away win
39.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 1.24 / μ 1.43
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
39.6%
|
2.53x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Draw |
29.4%
|
3.41x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Home win |
31.1%
|
3.22x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 6 meetings — Chapelton 0W / 1D / 5L
· momentum Chapelton 1.0 ppg vs Racing Unit… 1.67 ppg
Chapelton · last 6
01 Nov · Premier League
1-0
L
25 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
18 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
11 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
06 Oct · Premier League
0-6
L
27 Sep · Premier League
1-1
D
Racing United · last 6
01 Nov · Premier League
3-4
L
25 Oct · Premier League
1-2
W
20 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
13 Oct · Premier League
3-4
W
05 Oct · Premier League
0-6
W
28 Sep · Premier League
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
20 Mar 26 · Premier League
Racing United 3-0 Chapelton
24 Feb 26 · Premier League
Racing United 2-0 Chapelton
11 Dec 25 · Premier League
Chapelton 0-0 Racing United
08 Apr 25 · Premier League
Racing United 3-0 Chapelton
03 Feb 25 · Premier League
Chapelton 1-2 Racing United