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Copa de la División Profesional
Independiente Petrolero vs Always Ready
Wed 11 Nov 21:00 2 days, 16 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 83.5%
why
• league PROVEN (100.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
league track
proven · 100.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.6%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 29/31 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 82.0% (n=423)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
80.6%
Home, draw refunds
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (83.5%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
68.6%
Draw
14.9%
Away win
16.5%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.56 / μ 1.16
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 07 Nov · 174 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
16.5%
|
6.05x | 52.3% n=174 | risky |
| Draw |
14.9%
|
6.72x | 52.3% n=174 | risky |
| top Home win |
68.6%
|
1.46x | 52.3% n=174 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Independiente… 2W / 3D / 7L
· momentum Independien… 1.33 ppg vs Always Ready 2.17 ppg
Independiente Petrolero · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
0-2
L
02 Nov · Copa de la División P…
3-2
L
31 Oct · Primera División
1-1
D
25 Oct · Primera División
4-2
W
21 Oct · Copa de la División P…
4-0
W
18 Oct · Primera División
0-0
D
Always Ready · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
3-2
W
05 Nov · Copa de la División P…
1-4
W
02 Nov · Primera División
1-3
W
25 Oct · Primera División
5-1
W
21 Oct · Copa de la División P…
1-1
D
18 Oct · Primera División
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
12 Oct 26 · Primera División
Always Ready 2-0 Independiente P…
10 May 26 · Primera División
Independiente P… 0-0 Always Ready
14 Dec 25 · Primera División
Independiente P… 5-2 Always Ready
21 Jul 25 · Primera División
Always Ready 5-0 Independiente P…
18 Dec 24 · Primera División
Independiente P… 3-7 Always Ready