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Primera B
Envigado vs Popayan
Tomorrow 20:30 1 day, 15 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 89.8%
why
• league PROVEN (82.9%, n=35)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.9% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 24/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.1% (n=1406)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.6%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
30.4%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 1.38 / μ 1.22
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 293 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.4%
|
3.29x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| Draw |
32.0%
|
3.13x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| top Home win |
37.6%
|
2.66x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Envigado 1W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Envigado 1.83 ppg vs Popayan 1.67 ppg
Envigado · last 6
06 Nov · Primera B
1-0
L
02 Nov · Primera B
1-1
D
29 Oct · Primera B
2-0
W
24 Oct · Primera B
0-2
W
20 Oct · Primera B
1-0
W
15 Oct · Primera B
1-1
D
Popayan · last 6
06 Nov · Primera B
1-0
W
02 Nov · Primera B
2-4
W
29 Oct · Primera B
1-1
D
24 Oct · Primera B
2-1
W
20 Oct · Primera B
3-0
L
17 Oct · Primera B
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Primera B
Popayan 1-0 Envigado
06 Sep 26 · Primera B
Popayan 2-2 Envigado
05 Mar 26 · Primera B
Envigado 1-0 Popayan