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SAFF Championship

India vs Maldives

Tomorrow 11:30 22 hours, 54 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.9%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 8/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.7% hit (n=387)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.9%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
52.2%
Draw
23.3%
Away win
24.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:55
scoring fit λ 1.82 / μ 1.18
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
24.5%
4.08x – risky
Draw
23.3%
4.29x – risky
top Home win
52.2%
1.92x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum India 0.83 ppg vs Maldives 0.0 ppg
India · last 6
05 Nov · SAFF Championship 2-3 W
06 Oct · Friendlies 1-6 L
03 Oct · Friendlies 0-4 L
25 Sep · Friendlies 1-1 D
09 Jun · Friendlies 1-1 D
05 Jun · Friendlies 3-1 L
Maldives · last 6
08 Nov · SAFF Championship 0-3 L
01 Oct · Friendlies 0-1 L
28 Sep · Friendlies 5-0 L
24 Sep · Friendlies 3-0 L
04 Jun · Friendlies 0-3 L
01 Jun · Friendlies 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.