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Ligue 1

AFAD vs ISCA

Sun 08 Nov 15:30 0 minutes
IS
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home, draw refunds · 86.1%
book 1.24x · short <1.30x
why
• league AT_RISK (45.5%, n=22)
• type ledger 71% (n=62)
• short price 1.24x
• league's published legs underperform
league track
at risk · 45.5% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 26.9%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 9/7 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.0% hit (n=62, 90d ledger)
measured band: 86.4% (n=147)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
86.1%
Home, draw refunds
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds solid (86.1%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26 · 1.24x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
63.0%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
10.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 0.57
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
10.2%
9.8x 43.8% n=448 risky
Draw
26.8%
3.73x 43.8% n=448 risky
top Home win
63.0%
1.59x 43.8% n=448 lean
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — AFAD 3W / 0D / 0L · momentum AFAD 1.17 ppg vs ISCA 1.0 ppg
AFAD · last 6
01 Nov · Ligue 1 3-0 W
29 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 1-0 L
17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup 1-1 D
10 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
04 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
ISCA · last 6
29 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
25 Oct · Ligue 1 1-2 L
12 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 L
07 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 W
27 Sep · Ligue 1 0-0 D
23 May · Ligue 1 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
14 Feb 26 · Ligue 1 ISCA 0-3 AFAD
30 Aug 25 · Ligue 1 AFAD 1-0 ISCA
18 May 25 · Ligue 1 AFAD 2-0 ISCA