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Ligue 1
Korhogo vs ASEC Mimosas
Sun 08 Nov 15:30 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Draw or Away · 91.7%
why
• league AT_RISK (45.5%, n=22)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• league's published legs underperform
league track
at risk · 45.5% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 26.9%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 9/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.7%
Draw or Away
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
8.3%
Draw
19.1%
Away win
72.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 0.49 / μ 1.95
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
72.6%
|
1.38x | 43.8% n=448 | solid |
| Draw |
19.1%
|
5.24x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Home win |
8.3%
|
12.05x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Korhogo 1W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Korhogo 0.5 ppg vs ASEC Mimosas 1.17 ppg
Korhogo · last 6
01 Nov · Ligue 1
2-0
L
29 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
L
24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup
2-1
L
17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup
0-0
D
12 Oct · Ligue 1
3-3
D
05 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
ASEC Mimosas · last 6
01 Nov · Ligue 1
2-0
W
29 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
25 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-2
L
18 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-1
D
10 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
04 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
22 Mar 26 · Ligue 1
Korhogo 0-5 ASEC Mimosas
12 Oct 25 · Ligue 1
ASEC Mimosas 2-3 Korhogo