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Premier League
Arnett Gardens vs Waterhouse
Today 01:00 20 hours, 15 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league OK (57.9%, n=19)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 57.9% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 36.3%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 8/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
36.9%
Draw
28.1%
Away win
35.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 1.40 / μ 1.35
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
35.0%
|
2.86x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| Draw |
28.1%
|
3.56x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
| top Home win |
36.9%
|
2.71x | 67.7% n=31 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Arnett Gardens 9W / 2D / 1L
· momentum Arnett Gard… 1.17 ppg vs Waterhouse 2.0 ppg
Arnett Gardens · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
01 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
27 Oct · Premier League
4-1
W
18 Oct · Premier League
2-2
D
06 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
27 Sep · Premier League
3-2
L
Waterhouse · last 6
03 Nov · Premier League
2-1
W
26 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
20 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
13 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
08 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
06 Oct · Premier League
0-6
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Apr 26 · Premier League
Waterhouse 1-1 Arnett Gardens
20 Jan 26 · Premier League
Waterhouse 0-1 Arnett Gardens
23 Sep 25 · Premier League
Arnett Gardens 2-1 Waterhouse
28 Apr 25 · Premier League
Waterhouse 0-2 Arnett Gardens
14 Feb 25 · Premier League
Arnett Gardens 3-2 Waterhouse