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Liga MX Femenil
Pachuca Women vs Puebla Women
Fri 06 Nov 01:00 0 minutes final 4–3 · 1 won · 0 lostPu
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home win · 92.0%
why
• league PROVEN (79.1%, n=43)
• type ledger 56% (n=234)
• engine's headline pick
league track
proven · 79.1% of 43 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.8%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 15/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
FTR-H: 56.4% hit (n=234, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.2% (n=51)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.5% hit (n=477)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.0%
Home win
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home win
solid (92.0%)
@ 07 Nov 00:43
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
92.0%
Draw
6.1%
Away win
1.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 00:43
scoring fit λ 3.40 / μ 0.38
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 298 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
1.9%
|
51.16x | 69.5% n=298 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
6.1%
|
16.5x | 69.5% n=298 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
92.0%
|
1.09x | 69.5% n=298 | engine pick | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Pachuca Women 10W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Pachuca Wom… 2.0 ppg vs Puebla Women 0.17 ppg
Pachuca Women · last 6
07 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
4-3
W
01 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
0-5
W
25 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
5-0
W
19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-1
L
05 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
L
27 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
4-1
W
Puebla Women · last 6
07 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
4-3
L
01 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
L
27 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-1
L
17 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-1
D
03 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-0
L
27 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Liga MX Femenil
Pachuca Women 4-3 Puebla Women
21 Jan 26 · Liga MX Femenil
Pachuca Women 7-0 Puebla Women
13 Jul 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Puebla Women 1-5 Pachuca Women
16 Mar 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Puebla Women 0-1 Pachuca Women
27 Sep 24 · Liga MX Femenil
Pachuca Women 2-0 Puebla Women