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Championship

Preston vs Southampton

Sat 07 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=84)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 84 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.6%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
16.0%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
60.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:31
scoring fit λ 1.04 / μ 2.12
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 557 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
60.2%
1.66x 45.4% n=557 lean lost
Draw
23.9%
4.19x 45.4% n=557 risky lost
Home win
16.0%
6.27x 45.4% n=557 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Preston 5W / 4D / 3L · momentum Preston 0.67 ppg vs Southampton 1.83 ppg
Preston · last 6
07 Nov · Championship 1-0 W
03 Nov · Championship 2-3 L
31 Oct · Championship 2-0 L
24 Oct · Championship 1-1 D
17 Oct · Championship 4-1 L
13 Oct · Championship 4-0 L
Southampton · last 6
07 Nov · Championship 1-0 L
03 Nov · Championship 1-1 D
31 Oct · Championship 4-1 W
24 Oct · Championship 2-3 W
17 Oct · Championship 0-0 D
14 Oct · Championship 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Championship Preston 1-0 Southampton
02 May 26 · Championship Preston 1-3 Southampton
01 Nov 25 · Championship Southampton 0-2 Preston
16 Apr 24 · Championship Southampton 3-0 Preston
16 Apr 24 · Pro League Southampton 3-0 Preston
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 73.2% VOID VALUE win chance 73.2% VOID VALUE win chance 73.2% VOID VALUE win chance 73.5% VOID VALUE win chance 73.5% VOID VALUE win chance 72.6% VOID