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Liga MX Femenil
Querétaro Women vs Toluca Women
Fri 06 Nov 03:06 0 minutes final 1–1 · 1 won · 1 lostTo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 90.4%
book 1.16x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (80.5%, n=41)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• short price 1.16x
league track
proven · 80.5% of 41 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.1% (n=34)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
90.4%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (85.9%)
@ 06 Nov 03:48 · 1.22x
pick lost
Draw or Away
solid (90.4%)
@ 06 Nov 03:48 · 1.16x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
9.6%
Draw
14.1%
Away win
76.3%
calibrated 06 Nov 03:48
scoring fit λ 0.88 / μ 2.74
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 298 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
76.3%
|
1.31x | 69.5% n=298 | solid | lost |
| Draw |
14.1%
|
7.09x | 69.5% n=298 | risky | won |
| Home win |
9.6%
|
10.44x | 69.5% n=298 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Querétaro Wom… 4W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Querétaro W… 0.17 ppg vs Toluca Women 1.83 ppg
Querétaro Women · last 6
06 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
1-1
D
01 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
0-5
L
25 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-1
L
19 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-0
L
04 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
0-1
L
26 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
0-1
L
Toluca Women · last 6
06 Nov · Liga MX Femenil
1-1
D
31 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
2-3
L
25 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
W
20 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
0-0
D
05 Oct · Liga MX Femenil
1-2
W
29 Sep · Liga MX Femenil
0-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Liga MX Femenil
Querétaro Women 1-1 Toluca Women
27 Jan 26 · Liga MX Femenil
Querétaro Women 1-4 Toluca Women
01 Sep 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Toluca Women 2-0 Querétaro Women
21 Jan 25 · Liga MX Femenil
Toluca Women 1-2 Querétaro Women
19 Aug 24 · Liga MX Femenil
Querétaro Women 1-0 Toluca Women
Tickets including this match