HOME
Premier League
Artsakh vs Shirak
Fri 06 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.0%
why
• league PROVEN (80.8%, n=26)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 80.8% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 62.1%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 27/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
93.4%
Draw
4.6%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:07
scoring fit λ 2.85 / μ 0.12
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.99x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
4.6%
|
21.72x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
93.4%
|
1.07x | 67.7% n=31 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Artsakh 12W / 1D / 1L
· momentum Artsakh 2.17 ppg vs Shirak 1.17 ppg
Artsakh · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
1-0
W
01 Nov · Premier League
1-3
W
29 Oct · Cup
4-3
W
26 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
18 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
11 Oct · Premier League
1-5
W
Shirak · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
1-0
L
31 Oct · Premier League
2-1
W
28 Oct · Cup
1-7
W
24 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
17 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
12 Oct · Premier League
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Artsakh 1-0 Shirak
09 Aug 26 · Premier League
Shirak 3-4 Artsakh
22 Mar 26 · Premier League
Artsakh 3-0 Shirak
16 Mar 26 · Premier League
Shirak 0-2 Artsakh
03 Aug 25 · Premier League
Artsakh 4-0 Shirak