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Premiership
Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Sun 08 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 94.8%
why
• league PROVEN (75.0%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.0% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 26/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.7% (n=162)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
94.8%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
82.0%
Draw
12.8%
Away win
5.2%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 2.78 / μ 0.61
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 239 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.2%
|
19.09x | 53.6% n=239 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
12.8%
|
7.83x | 53.6% n=239 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
82.0%
|
1.22x | 53.6% n=239 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 95 meetings — Celtic 73W / 16D / 6L
· momentum Celtic 1.67 ppg vs Kilmarnock 1.0 ppg
Celtic · last 6
08 Nov · Premiership
1-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-2
W
31 Oct · Premiership
1-0
L
28 Oct · Premiership
2-2
D
25 Oct · Premiership
1-2
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-2
L
Kilmarnock · last 6
08 Nov · Premiership
1-0
L
31 Oct · Premiership
2-1
W
28 Oct · Premiership
3-1
L
24 Oct · Premiership
3-0
L
17 Oct · Premiership
3-2
W
10 Oct · Premiership
3-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premiership
Celtic 1-0 Kilmarnock
09 Aug 26 · Premiership
Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic
15 Feb 26 · Premiership
Kilmarnock 2-3 Celtic
09 Nov 25 · Premiership
Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock
14 Sep 25 · Premiership
Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic
Tickets including this match