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First Division
Pafos FC vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Sun 08 Nov 19:00 0 minutes final 4–2 · settledOm
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.0%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 26/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
70.0%
Draw
20.1%
Away win
9.9%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 2.39 / μ 0.85
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
9.9%
|
10.13x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.1%
|
4.97x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
70.0%
|
1.43x | 49.7% n=187 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Pafos FC 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Pafos FC 1.17 ppg vs Omonia 29is… 1.5 ppg
Pafos FC · last 6
08 Nov · First Division
4-2
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
3-1
L
31 Oct · First Division
2-2
D
26 Oct · First Division
0-0
D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-1
D
19 Oct · First Division
0-0
D
Omonia 29is Maiou · last 6
08 Nov · First Division
4-2
L
01 Nov · First Division
1-0
W
25 Oct · First Division
4-1
L
18 Oct · First Division
1-0
W
14 Oct · Cup
6-2
W
11 Oct · First Division
2-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · First Division
Pafos FC 4-2 Omonia 29is Mai…