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UEFA Europa League

Benfica vs Lech Poznan

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 87.6%
book 1.07x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.07x
• priced 1.07x needs 93% to break even
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 25/30 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.6%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (87.6%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.07x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
72.2%
Draw
15.4%
Away win
12.4%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.68 / μ 1.04
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
12.4%
8.06x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
Draw
15.4%
6.49x 55.4% n=269 risky lost
top Home win
72.2%
1.39x 55.4% n=269 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Benfica 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Benfica 3.0 ppg vs Lech Poznan 1.33 ppg
Benfica · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga 2-3 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 3-1 W
02 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-0 W
29 Oct · Taça da Liga 4-1 W
26 Oct · Primeira Liga 1-2 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 1-4 W
Lech Poznan · last 6
07 Nov · Ekstraklasa 2-2 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 3-1 L
31 Oct · Ekstraklasa 3-1 W
28 Oct · Cup 1-0 L
25 Oct · Ekstraklasa 1-2 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznan
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 72.8% WON VALUE win chance 72.8% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.5% VOID VALUE win chance 72.5% VOID