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Süper Lig
Galatasaray vs Amed
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 4–3 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.8%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• short price 1.19x
league track
proven · 72.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.8%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 19/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.8%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (87.8%)
@ 07 Nov 17:54 · 1.19x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.6%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
12.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 2.43 / μ 1.01
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 297 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.2%
|
8.18x | 49.8% n=297 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.1%
|
4.73x | 49.8% n=297 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.6%
|
1.5x | 49.8% n=297 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Galatasaray 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Galatasaray 3.0 ppg vs Amed 2.17 ppg
Galatasaray · last 6
07 Nov · Süper Lig
4-3
W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League
2-0
W
30 Oct · Süper Lig
0-4
W
26 Oct · Süper Lig
2-1
W
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League
2-4
W
17 Oct · Süper Lig
0-1
W
Amed · last 6
07 Nov · Süper Lig
4-3
L
01 Nov · Süper Lig
5-1
W
24 Oct · Süper Lig
1-2
W
17 Oct · Süper Lig
1-0
W
10 Oct · Süper Lig
2-2
D
20 Sep · Süper Lig
3-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Süper Lig
Galatasaray 4-3 Amed