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Azerbaijan Premier League

Qarabağ FK vs Turan Tovuz

Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 86.2%
book 1.22x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (69.6%, n=23)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.22x
league track
ok · 69.6% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.1%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 22/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.2%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (86.2%)
@ 07 Nov 17:59 · 1.22x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.1%
Draw
22.1%
Away win
13.8%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:59
scoring fit λ 1.95 / μ 0.79
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 52 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
13.8%
7.26x 57.7% n=52 risky won
Draw
22.1%
4.53x 57.7% n=52 risky lost
top Home win
64.1%
1.56x 57.7% n=52 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Qarabağ FK 8W / 2D / 3L · momentum Qarabağ FK 1.5 ppg vs Turan Tovuz 1.67 ppg
Qarabağ FK · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-1 L
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-0 D
25 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-0 D
17 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 3-3 D
11 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-2 W
18 Sep · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-0 W
Turan Tovuz · last 6
07 Nov · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-1 W
31 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 3-2 W
24 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-1 D
18 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 1-0 L
11 Oct · Azerbaijan Premier Le… 0-1 W
03 Oct · Friendlies Clubs 0-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Qarabağ FK 0-1 Turan Tovuz
04 May 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Qarabağ FK 2-1 Turan Tovuz
01 Feb 26 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Qarabağ FK 1-0 Turan Tovuz
17 Oct 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Turan Tovuz 1-2 Qarabağ FK
28 Mar 25 · Azerbaijan Premier Le… Turan Tovuz 1-4 Qarabağ FK
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 73.5% VOID VALUE win chance 73.5% VOID VALUE win chance 72.2% VOID