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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Sat 07 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 20/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
68.8%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
8.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:32
scoring fit λ 2.44 / μ 0.88
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 406 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
8.9%
11.27x 52.5% n=406 risky lost
Draw
22.3%
4.48x 52.5% n=406 risky lost
top Home win
68.8%
1.45x 52.5% n=406 lean won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Borussia Dort… 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Borussia Do… 2.67 ppg vs SV Elversbe… 1.0 ppg
Borussia Dortmund · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga 2-1 W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League 2-1 W
31 Oct · Bundesliga 2-2 D
27 Oct · DFB Pokal 3-2 W
24 Oct · Bundesliga 1-0 W
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League 1-2 W
SV Elversberg · last 6
07 Nov · Bundesliga 2-1 L
30 Oct · Bundesliga 4-1 W
27 Oct · DFB Pokal 0-2 L
24 Oct · Bundesliga 4-0 L
17 Oct · Bundesliga 4-3 W
10 Oct · Bundesliga 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Bundesliga Borussia Dortmu… 2-1 SV Elversberg
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 82.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 77.9% VOID VALUE win chance 78.8% VOID TREBLE win chance 74.8% VOID VALUE win chance 78.0% VOID