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UEFA Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 83.4%
book 1.24x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.1%, n=45)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
• short price 1.24x
• draw bets in this league lose 31% at book prices (90d n=70)
league track
proven · 71.1% of 45 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 21/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
83.4%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (83.4%)
@ 05 Nov 17:24 · 1.24x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.9%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
23.5%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 1.20
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 269 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
23.5%
|
4.26x | 55.4% n=269 | risky | won |
| Draw |
16.6%
|
6.03x | 55.4% n=269 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
59.9%
|
1.67x | 55.4% n=269 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Bayer Leverku… 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Bayer Lever… 1.5 ppg vs Marseille 2.5 ppg
Bayer Leverkusen · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga
1-2
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
0-1
L
31 Oct · Bundesliga
2-4
L
28 Oct · DFB Pokal
5-2
W
25 Oct · Bundesliga
3-0
L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
0-2
W
Marseille · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1
1-2
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
0-1
W
01 Nov · Ligue 1
2-0
W
25 Oct · Ligue 1
4-3
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-0
L
18 Oct · Ligue 1
2-5
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Marseille
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