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La Liga
Villarreal vs Getafe
Sun 08 Nov 19:30 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home, draw refunds · 86.2%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (68.1%, n=47)
• type ledger 71% (n=62)
• short price 1.19x
league track
ok · 68.1% of 47 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 26/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.0% hit (n=62, 90d ledger)
measured band: 86.4% (n=147)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.2%
Home, draw refunds
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds
solid (86.2%)
@ 08 Nov 17:23 · 1.19x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
73.4%
Draw
14.9%
Away win
11.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 2.16 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 379 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.8%
|
8.49x | 52.0% n=379 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
14.9%
|
6.72x | 52.0% n=379 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
73.4%
|
1.36x | 52.0% n=379 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 39 meetings — Villarreal 21W / 10D / 8L
· momentum Villarreal 1.5 ppg vs Getafe 1.0 ppg
Villarreal · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga
2-0
W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League
0-6
L
30 Oct · La Liga
0-1
L
27 Oct · Copa del Rey
0-5
W
24 Oct · La Liga
1-2
W
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
4-3
L
Getafe · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga
2-0
L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
0-1
L
01 Nov · La Liga
3-1
W
29 Oct · Copa del Rey
2-3
W
25 Oct · La Liga
4-0
L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-5
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · La Liga
Villarreal 2-0 Getafe
14 Feb 26 · La Liga
Getafe 2-1 Villarreal
06 Dec 25 · La Liga
Villarreal 2-0 Getafe
30 Mar 25 · La Liga
Getafe 1-2 Villarreal
20 Oct 24 · La Liga
Villarreal 1-1 Getafe