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Primeira Liga

Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Sat 07 Nov 22:30 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.8%
why
• league OK (63.6%, n=22)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 20/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
78.0%
Draw
17.8%
Away win
4.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:55
scoring fit λ 2.57 / μ 0.59
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
4.2%
23.68x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
Draw
17.7%
5.63x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
top Home win
78.0%
1.28x 55.2% n=308 solid won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 16 meetings — Sporting CP 11W / 2D / 3L · momentum Sporting CP 2.0 ppg vs Moreirense 1.17 ppg
Sporting CP · last 6
07 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-0 W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League 0-1 W
30 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-2 W
27 Oct · Taça da Liga 2-1 W
25 Oct · Primeira Liga 1-2 L
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League 2-3 L
Moreirense · last 6
07 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-0 L
31 Oct · Primeira Liga 2-1 W
25 Oct · Primeira Liga 1-3 W
17 Oct · Taça de Portugal 1-0 L
09 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-1 L
20 Sep · Primeira Liga 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Primeira Liga Sporting CP 1-0 Moreirense
21 Feb 26 · Primeira Liga Moreirense 0-3 Sporting CP
22 Sep 25 · Primeira Liga Sporting CP 3-0 Moreirense
09 Aug 25 · Liga Portugal 2 Moreirense 0-1 Sporting CP
18 Apr 25 · Primeira Liga Sporting CP 3-1 Moreirense
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 81.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 89.3% WON SURESHOT win chance 95.8% VOID