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Liga Premier Serie A
Calor de San Pedro vs Real Apodaca
Fri 13 Nov 23:30 1 day, 23 hoursRe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 75.0%
why
• league PROVEN (80.6%, n=31)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
proven · 80.6% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 63.7%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 11/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=950)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (75.0%)
@ 11 Nov 23:56
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
45.2%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
29.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:56
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 1.35
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 438 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.8%
|
3.35x | 53.9% n=438 | risky |
| Draw |
25.0%
|
4.0x | 53.9% n=438 | risky |
| top Home win |
45.2%
|
2.21x | 53.9% n=438 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Calor de San … 1W / 1D / 2L
· momentum Calor de Sa… 1.0 ppg vs Real Apodaca 0.67 ppg
Calor de San Pedro · last 6
07 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A
0-1
W
31 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
1-4
L
25 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
4-1
L
22 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
2-4
L
16 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
1-2
L
10 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
1-7
W
Real Apodaca · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A
3-0
W
03 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A
1-0
L
26 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
3-3
D
17 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
3-0
L
12 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
0-1
L
05 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A
1-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
30 Mar 26 · Liga Premier Serie A
Real Apodaca 1-0 Calor de San Pe…
16 Nov 25 · Liga Premier Serie A
Calor de San Pe… 1-2 Real Apodaca
07 Mar 24 · Liga Premier Serie A
Real Apodaca 2-2 Calor de San Pe…
05 Oct 23 · Liga Premier Serie A
Calor de San Pe… 2-1 Real Apodaca