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Liga Premier Serie A

Real Apodaca vs Dragones de Oaxaca

Sun 08 Nov 00:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · settled
Dr
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• league PROVEN (83.9%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 83.9% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.4%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 11/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
41.1%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
33.7%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 1.55 / μ 1.38
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 438 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
33.7%
2.97x 53.9% n=438 risky lost
Draw
25.2%
3.96x 53.9% n=438 risky lost
top Home win
41.1%
2.44x 53.9% n=438 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Real Apodaca 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Real Apodaca 0.67 ppg vs Dragones de… 1.67 ppg
Real Apodaca · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A 3-0 W
03 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A 1-0 L
26 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 3-3 D
17 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 3-0 L
12 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 0-1 L
05 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 1-2 L
Dragones de Oaxaca · last 6
09 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A 3-0 L
01 Nov · Liga Premier Serie A 2-0 W
24 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 6-0 L
18 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 0-0 D
13 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 5-1 W
04 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A 3-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Liga Premier Serie A Real Apodaca 3-0 Dragones de Oax…