At
HOME
Liga Premier Serie B

Atletico Hidalgo vs Celaya 2

Tomorrow 02:00 21 hours, 32 minutes
Ce
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.4%
why
• league NEW (100.0%, n=4)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 100.0% of 4 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 51.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 6/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.2% hit (n=476)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.4%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
32.8%
Draw
23.6%
Away win
43.7%
calibrated 11 Nov 03:06
scoring fit λ 1.86 / μ 2.14
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
43.7%
2.29x – risky
Draw
23.6%
4.24x – risky
Home win
32.8%
3.05x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Atletico Hi… 0.5 ppg vs Celaya 2 1.83 ppg
Atletico Hidalgo · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Premier Serie B 0-10 L
02 Nov · Liga Premier Serie B 11-0 L
18 Oct · Liga Premier Serie B 7-0 W
02 Oct · Liga Premier Serie B 6-1 L
21 Sep · Liga Premier Serie B 3-1 L
05 Sep · Liga Premier Serie B 2-1 L
Celaya 2 · last 6
06 Nov · Liga Premier Serie B 2-0 W
02 Nov · Liga Premier Serie B 3-1 L
16 Oct · Liga Premier Serie B 1-1 D
04 Oct · Liga Premier Serie B 2-3 W
19 Sep · Liga Premier Serie B 2-1 W
04 Sep · Liga Premier Serie B 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.