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Primera Premier
Tritons Vallarta vs Tapachula
Fri 13 Nov 18:00 1 day, 16 hoursTa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 83.5%
why
• league OK (80.0%, n=15)
• type ledger 79% (n=2000)
league track
ok · 80.0% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 9/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=2000, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.1% (n=429)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (83.5%)
@ 11 Nov 23:59
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.8%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
16.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.96 / μ 0.97
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
16.5%
|
6.05x | – | risky |
| Draw |
24.6%
|
4.06x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
58.8%
|
1.7x | – | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Tritons Valla… 1W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Tritons Val… 0.83 ppg vs Tapachula 0.5 ppg
Tritons Vallarta · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Premier
1-1
D
30 Oct · Primera Premier
3-2
W
24 Oct · Primera Premier
2-1
L
11 Oct · Primera Premier
1-0
L
04 Oct · Primera Premier
2-1
L
27 Sep · Primera Premier
1-1
D
Tapachula · last 6
08 Nov · Primera Premier
2-4
L
31 Oct · Primera Premier
4-1
L
25 Oct · Primera Premier
1-0
W
19 Oct · Primera Premier
1-4
L
11 Oct · Primera Premier
2-1
L
04 Oct · Primera Premier
2-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
19 Apr 26 · Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula 1-1 Tritons Vallarta
16 Apr 26 · Liga Premier Serie A
Tritons Vallarta 1-0 Tapachula