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Primera Premier

Chapulineros vs Cordobés

Tomorrow 04:05 23 hours, 25 minutes
Co
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 95.0%
why
• league OK (80.0%, n=15)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 80.0% of 15 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 54.8%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 9/9 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
95.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.9%
Draw
29.2%
Away win
31.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.39 / μ 1.23
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
31.8%
3.14x – risky
Draw
29.2%
3.42x – risky
top Home win
38.9%
2.57x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Chapulineros 1.83 ppg vs Cordobés 1.17 ppg
Chapulineros · last 6
01 Nov · Primera Premier 1-1 D
24 Oct · Primera Premier 2-1 W
17 Oct · Primera Premier 2-1 W
04 Oct · Primera Premier 2-3 W
26 Sep · Primera Premier 1-3 L
20 Sep · Primera Premier 0-0 D
Cordobés · last 6
01 Nov · Primera Premier 2-2 D
25 Oct · Primera Premier 2-1 L
18 Oct · Primera Premier 2-0 L
10 Oct · Primera Premier 1-0 W
05 Oct · Primera Premier 0-2 W
26 Sep · Primera Premier 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.